Thinking vs. Doing

Much of what we “do” every day is driven by long established norms, norms that most of us rarely give much thought. Societies always have outliers who think about things a little differently. Often, these thinkers are entrepreneurs. Their journey usually begins with “why” or “what if”. Why are most people seemingly happy to exist within the status quo? I believe it’s the discomfort created by stepping outside the normalcy bubble to think for oneself. Just spend one day asking yourself why you do the things you do and you’ll see how easy it is to imagine different solutions. Of course, you have to accept that your solutions might be worse. And should you wish to advocate for your new solutions, be prepared for resistance. People resist out of fear of the unknown, or because they have a vested interest in keeping things the same. But resistance is a powerful force against change.

I believe this dynamic is now playing out in the context of the office. For generations we’ve conceived of the office in the same way. The peripheral voices of the thinkers who put forth data and arguments in favor of remote work, or shorter work weeks, or the virtual workplace have been there for some time, but they were difficult to hear amidst the steady drumbeat of a massive industry (the office market). Companies thought they needed the office to be productive. Employees thought they needed the office to be connected. Investors and developers thought their office buildings were susceptible to market change, but only change within a relatively narrow band of supply/demand economic outcomes driven by traditional macro-economic stimuli – not existential threats.

From my small window I see enduring changes taking place that will have meaningful impact on cities, on office markets and on how companies and employees work. It’s not too soon, in my opinion, to identify some clear trends. These include reduced demand for space based on new workplace strategies. For evidence, look no further than San Francisco, where current office jobs are greater than the pre-pandemic peak when office vacancy was 4%, yet today the office market is 20% vacant. Many in the office market speculate there will be a reversion back to the norm (pre-pandemic). Maybe. But only if hybrid, remote and virtual-first workplaces begin to fail. They have not done so yet. In fact, many companies have enjoyed increased productivity during the pandemic. What will failure look like? Inability to retain talent will be one indicator. Reduced productivity is another. Challenges managing the distributed workforce would contribute. We must also consider that once a previously accepted norm is turned upside down and the questioning begins, the answers aren’t necessarily binary. In fact, future outcomes are unlikely look like the pre-pandemic norm or the current state, they’ll be something different. One “for example” would be the conversion of an otherwise obsolete office building into a vertical corporate community in which employees work and live. Talk about a way to retain talent - - - housing, onsite daycare and the office experience, all in the same building. Whatever the future holds, the current moment is more about thinking than doing. This will be uncomfortable for some, and there will be winners and losers. Progress is always measured in this way.